Conditions for a new bull market are slowly getting satisfied. The yield curve has stopped flattening, liquidity is improving, valuations appear supportive and profit margin expansion is a growing possibility in the coming months, says Morgan Stanley Research.
Morgan Stanley has rolled out its market target to December2013 as 23,069. This implies that the market will be trading at 14.9 tines the FY14 estimated Sensex earnings in December 2013.
Morgan Stanley is expecting the Sensex earnings growth to be 10% and 19% in FY13 and FY14. Significantly, broad market earnings may have troughed or could trough in the current quarter. Revenue growth should slowly accelerate in the coming months. Margins could rise in the coming months with a favourable base effect driven by the relative movement in the current and fiscal deficit. Interest rates are already down YoY (year-on-year), and should stem the steep rise witnessed in interest costs in the previous 12 months. The risk to earnings is that the investment rate collapses, although recent signals suggest that the public sector is starting to spend money.
The key risks are that commodity prices rise quickly, bringing inflation pressures to the fore, and global risk appetite wanes as global policy makers slip into another cycle of complacency. Mid-term polls are also a possibility, but it is not necessarily seen as a downside risk to stocks.
Morgan Stanley observes that the decisive policy action at home (reduction in subsidies and opening up of FDI) and, more crucially, concerted action by European and US central banks have reduced India’s tail risk linked to poor macro stability (twin deficit).
Accordingly, the research agency has gone underweight on consumer staples and has raised energy and materials stocks to overweight. Also, it has taken industrials to neutral. It has trimmed technology by 100 basis points. Consequently, the average sector position has expanded, and it is seen as an emerging strategy, as the average correlations of stocks to the market appear to be falling and no longer merits extreme focus on stock picking
1. Day Trading
Let’s face it. We all start day-dreaming at the very mention of investing and float into a fantasy world where we are as rich as Warren Buffet. As day-trading is perhaps the shortest time duration to get returns on an invested amount, newbie investors might be tempted to jump right into it. But beware – you will earn way lesser from day trading than investing for about a year. Not only does this job rob you of peace of mind and sleep but also does not guarantee a positive return on your investment at the end of the day.
2. Flipping Real Estate
Let’s understand flipping real estate before delving further into it. Real estate flipping is when you buy at a lesser price and sell at a higher one or buy a house, repair it and then resell it. Real estate is among the very green and fertile areas of investment but this particular mode of action is not. Real estate flipping is a profitable option only when you will be able to charge a bit more for the house, indicating profits. However, if the prices of houses are sliding anyway, you won’t be able to get a good bargain, even if you’ve spent a fortune on it.
3. Trading Foreign Currency
Trading and investing is a turbulent world anyway and trading foreign currencies is an additional bad option. Trading has more of cons than pros, especially if you are a new investor. If you are unaware of the nitty-gritty’s of investing, you are bound to fall hard. Trading foreign currencies can be a great investment option but only if you are loaded with money and have experience. If you are new to this, you will be playing against experienced big shots, who might even play dirty. Moreover, this is one area which is abundant in frauds and scams.
4. Online Surveys
With the advent of the internet revolution has come one hidden nuisance – online surveys. To some, online surveys are great ways to collect primary genuine data, while to some – it is a clever way of collecting private information and misusing it. Whatever may b e the case, participating in online surveys is not a very profitable idea. Apart from sheer monotony of the job, such portals do not pay great money too. If you were thinking of asking for a raise to do this job, remember that someone out there will do it at a lesser money than you.
5. High-yield Investment Opportunities
If you’ve ever thought of a clever idea to make honest money, there are millions out there who have deceptive ways of earning way more money. Enticing people with high-yield investment schemes is just another scheme to cheat people. We have encountered one or more of such ponzi schemes in our lives and have seen the ugly consequences. Apart from its illegal status, such investment opportunities are nothing more than a pain for the common man. There are plenty more ways to make easy money without having to resort to illegal means. So, Google a few such ones.
All the guys out there would find this job to be more than rewarding – playing online games all day long and getting paid for it that too. But if you fall in this category, then it’s time to come out of it. You might be the gaming champion in your guys’ circle but never forget that there will always be a teen who is quicker and better than you. The online gaming industry is witnessing a huge growth spurt and there are more than willing candidates who will play their favourite online games at low pays. So, make up your mind and play online games for fun and not money.
Surprise surprise. Contrary to popular belief, blogging does not help you earn oodles of money. This phenomenon has been hyped too much and blown out of proportion to a large extent. Blogging will help you earn money to an extent but not make you rich overnight. Regular blogs earn money by putting up likable content and gaining audience popularity. But this takes time and does not pay well either. Professional blogs, on the other hand hire experts to write for them and get tons of money from advertising. So, if blogging is your passion and not pay, then continue with it.
Gambling has been the bane of our society since the beginning of time. As people have been gambling with more than just money, gambling with money seems to have become a part of human culture. Apart from an obvious horrid habit, gambling is considered an easy way of making big money. Unless you are not a victim of rigged dices and plain bad luck, you just might make a small fortune. But chances are that you will lose more money than earn it. So, choice is yours – crack the ‘Teen Patti’ mathematics code or get super concentration like Mahowny.
9. Paid Medical Testing
Man rules when it comes to testing on living beings, including its own kind. Science and testing has tempted man to go beyond the ordinary for ages, even if it means sacrificing a few lives in the process. Paid medical testing is not like the other contenders on this list. It is utterly legal and pays quite handsomely but there is one very big catch in it. It requires you to sign an obligatory contract which actually allows medical professional to test experimental drugs on you. It even makes you nod hesitatingly to bear all associated side-effects of the new drugs. Death too is mentioned among them, apart from seizures and vomiting. So, pick your experimenters wisely.