Kerry in China to Seek Help in Korea Crisis


Secretary of State John Kerry flew to China on Saturday and sought to elicit China’s help in dealing with an increasingly recalcitrant nuclear armed North Korea by saying that American missile defenses could be cut back if the North abandoned its nuclear program.

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Mr. Kerry’s trip to China, his first since taking office, is part of an intensive three-day push to try to calm tensions on the Korean Peninsula that have threatened to spiral out of control and rattled world leaders.

In a news conference, Mr. Kerry suggested that the United States could remove some newly enhanced missile defenses in the region, though he did not specify which ones. Any eventual cutback would address Chinese concerns about the buildup of American weapons systems in the region.

After back-to-back meetings between Mr. Kerry and China’s top leaders, the two countries announced that they endorsed the principle of ridding the Korean Peninsula of nuclear weapons, though China did not state publicly what steps it might take to achieve that goal after years of reluctance to crack down on Pyongyang.

“We also joined together in calling on North Korea to refrain from provocations and to abide by international obligations,” Mr. Kerry said.

Worries spiked last week as the South Koreans predicted the North could launch a new missile test any day and after the disclosure that an American intelligence agency concluded for the first time with “moderate confidence” that North Korea learned how to make a nuclear warhead small enough to be delivered by a ballistic missile. The administration has since said that it was premature to conclude that Pyongyang had a fully tested weapons system.

Mr. Kerry’s stance on newly fortified missile defenses appeared to be a selling point to get China, the only country presumed to have any real influence over North Korea, to do what it has long resisted — crack down hard enough that North Korea’s leaders will give up an increasingly sophisticated nuclear program.

In recent weeks, the administration has dispatched two ships outfitted with Aegis antimissile defenses to the region and said it will speed up the positioning of land-based missile defenses on Guam to protect allies in the region after North Korea’s threats to rain missiles on United States troops there and on South Korea.

Many Chinese believe the antimissile systems are part of a containment strategy against them at a time when the United States is pursuing a “pivot” to Asia.

In the past, China has been motivated by a different fear: that any move to destabilize the North would lead to a collapse of the regime and deliver the entire peninsula to the United States’ sphere of influence, possibly bringing American troops in South Korea closer to its border.

China’s cooperation is essential to the Obama administration’s strategy of holding a tough line on Pyongyang in an attempt to achieve the type of long-lasting solution on the nuclear program that has eluded a string of United States presidents. Previous administrations responded to North Korean provocations by eventually offering aid to tamp down tensions, only to see the North’s promises to relinquish its nuclear program evaporate once the aid had been delivered.

Mr. Kerry said he explained to China why the United States felt it needed more missile defenses in the region.

“Obviously if the threat disappears — i.e. North Korea denuclearizes — the same imperative does not exist at that point of time for us to have that kind of robust forward leaning posture of defense,” he said. “And it would be our hope in the long run, or better yet in short run, that we can address that.”

Mr. Kerry’s remarks are likely to stir concern among staunch advocates of missile defense in the United States, who also see antimissile systems as a means of responding to China’s growing military might. His aides say any changes would require the input of the Pentagon.

Even if China were to take a strong position with its longtime ally, possibly cutting back essential aid and fuel, North Korea might not fall into line. Under its new leader, Kim Jong-un, the North has snubbed China several times, including refusing Chinese entreaties to cancel the recent nuclear test that set off the war of words on the Peninsula.

At the core of the issue is the United States’ inability to draw North Korea into a serious round of nuclear talks. North Korea’s apparent determination to expand its nuclear weapons program and the American demand that it commit up front to eventually relinquishing those arms have raised the question of whether there is even any basis for negotiations. “China has an enormous ability to help make a difference here,” Mr. Kerry said on Friday in Seoul.

The Chinese stance on North Korea has never been a simple one. On one hand, the Chinese prize stability and are eager to avoid a crisis that would spawn a flood of refugees or prompt the United States to shift more forces to the Pacific. On the other hand, that same concern for stability has meant that it is reluctant to take steps that would undermine the North Korean government’s hold on power and eliminate a friendly buffer between Chinese territory and South Korean and American forces.

In Beijing, Mr. Kerry met with the new president, Xi Jinping, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Premier Li Keqiang and State Councilor Yang Jiechi.

Mr. Yang said at a dinner with Mr. Kerry on Saturday night that China was committed to “the denuclearization process on the Korean Peninsula.” But the Chinese state councilor also stressed that the “issue should be handled and resolved peacefully through dialogue and consultation.”

To encourage the Chinese to deal with the North Korean nuclear problem, Mr. Kerry said that he had shared “very in-depth” information illustrating the danger of how a nuclear North Korea could promote the proliferation of nuclear arms in Asia and the Middle East.

Mr. Kerry said his aim was to find a way to revive the goals of the six-party talks on the North’s nuclear program, which have been stalled since 2009 when North Korea withdrew. The talks have included North and South Korea, China, Russia, Japan and the United States.

He also portrayed cooperation on North Korea as just one element of a “model partnership” the United States hoped to build with China on diplomatic, economic and environmental issues.

Mr. Kerry said there would be additional discussions in the weeks ahead with the Chinese that would involve American intelligence experts including Gen. Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The two sides also called on North Korea to refrain from provocations, an apparent allusion to a potential missile test the South Koreans said could happen soon.

Bonnie S. Glaser, a senior adviser for Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said China was very frustrated with Mr. Kim and was taking some action, like cracking down on the flow of illicit North Korean funds through Chinese banks. At the same time, she noted, the Chinese fear the United States’ recent actions, including a test flight of B-2 bombers over South Korea, would further incite the North.

The United States “keeps sending more fighter bombers and missile defense ships to the waters of East Asia and carrying out massive military drills with Asian allies in a dramatic display of pre-emptive power,” the state-run news agency Xinhua said Saturday.

 Jane Perlez contributed reporting.

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: April 13, 2013

 An earlier version of this article misidentified the Chinese official who stressed that “the denuclearization process on the Korean Peninsula” should be “handled and resolved peacefully through dialogue and consultation.” It was State Councilor Yang Jiechi, not Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

By MICHAEL R. GORDON

What next for Syria talks after Damascus attack?


The recent attack in central Damascus which claimed the lives of at least 53 people has again doubted chances for a prompt solution to the Syrian crisis.

сирия дамаск взрыв дым заминированный атомобиль

None of the opposition groups has yet claimed responsibility for the attack. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and the U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry are expected to discuss the situation during the talks in Berlin on February 26. There is not much optimism about the meeting, though. 

Mr. Lavrov earlier said that he was puzzled to known that the U.S. had vetoed the UNSC draft statement to the media composed by Russia which condemns the Damascus attack. Following his meeting with China’s Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi in Moscow on February 22 Mr. Lavrov accused the U.S. of ‘double-standard policy’ and ‘a dangerous trend when our U.S. partners ignore the basic principle which requires a strong condemnation of any attack’. 

On February 24 John Kerry is starting his first Europe and Middle East tour. Washington expects the Syrian crisis to dominate the agenda of the talks with Sergei Lavrov, U.S. Department of State Spokesperson Victoria Nuland said.

Victoria Nuland also said that the U.S. urges the opposition to sit down for talks with the regime, adding that the meeting could take place anywhere, including Moscow. 

Meanwhile, Russian analysts have different views on how Moscow and Washington could influence the outcome of the Syrian crisis. Boris Dolgov, expert at the Russian Institute of Oriental Studies, believes that the U.S. has been softening its position on the issue with Moscow and Washington having a good potential for finding a common ground for cooperation.

“First of all, Moscow and Washington could agree to stop arms supplies to militants in Syria. Certainly, this would require Russia and the U.S to pressure on both the Syrian government and the opposition to sit down for talks.” 

Prominent expert and the president of the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies, Yevgeny Satanovsky, thinks that Moscow and Washington won’t be able to find a compromise on the issue since they have too different approaches to the situation.

“The Syrian settlement is impossible. The talks won’t bring any result since the opposition is split over the idea, most of them not willing to have talks with the regime. They are busy with jihad, and this is not Assad`s resignation they want but elimination of the Alawites (those who belong to a branch of Shia Islam), and Bashar Assad is an Alawite. So, Moscow and Washington can just help each other to have a better understanding of the differences in their approaches.”

Mr. Satanovsky`s pessimism echoes the words by Victoria Nuland when she said that the U.S. was not going to dictate its will to Syrian opposition. 

The conflict in Syria broke out in March, 2011, and last year it turned into a civil war between the armed opposition groups and the regime. The UN says Syria’s death toll has approached nearly 70,000 people.

Andrey Fedyashin

The Man Behind Rahul Gandhi


The Man Behind Rahul Gandhi

 ’Behind every successful man is a woman’. But in certain cases, behind successful men are other men. If you do not have any clue as to who is working hard for Rahul Gandhi UP campaign, then read on.

Kanishka Singh, a 34-old young man is the man behind Rahul’s campaigns in UP a success. He is his chief strategist for the UP polls. Prior to this Kanishka has worked with Sheila Dixit in the run-up to Delhi’s assembly elections in 2003. A great hush-hush was created with his column, “Why Sonia is Like John Kerry” in outlook magazine, as it argued polls in India and the U.S.

Today if someone claims to be familiar to the Grand Old Party, they know Singh too. Call him a close adviser, confidant, guide or gatekeeper to Rahul Gandhi, if meeting Gandhi is what you looking up for, then there is no better way to ask Kanishka for an appointment.

Holding a MBA degree from Wharton School, Kaniska is busy overlooking the folks who run spread sheets and numbers at Rahul’s Tughlak lane home-office. A Congressman familiar to both Gandhi and Singh said, “Rahul doesn’t want woolly, gut-feel political hunches. He wants numbers, percentages, and Kanishka gets the data and analyses it for him. Both are analytical, it’s a good fit,” as reported by The Economic Times.

Kanishka and his team are burning their sweat out months before the dates for polls in Uttar Pradesh were announced by the Election Commission. Singh these days is working hard on plotting strategies and sifting through the possible names for the candidates. Singh said, “Once we know our rivals’ moves, we can plan ours better. It’s simple game theory.”

The Man Behind Rahul Gandhi

As Kanishka has an experience of working in the U.S. with investment bank Lazard Freres, he plans to implement some the best practices in his work. There are many members in the party that tend to mock at some of his practice but then it is very limited. Being with Gandhi 24/7 and working for him is not a easy task, it can take a toll anytime, he is playing a gamble, which would pay off amply if worked out well.

The long working hours explains Singh’s stubble and crumpled very well as he makes an appearance just behind Gandhi at a rally at southern UP. A bespectacled figure looking younger than his age is one who can be easily overlooked. Being polite all the time he speaks, “By the end of campaigning Rahul would have done 200 public meetings. That’s one rally for every two assembly seats.”

You can find him busy looking into his spreadsheets and arranging people who can be available for the campaign. In one of the recent rallies, a Congress MP from UP approaches him to have Raj Babbar as a star speaker. Kanishka glares at the spread sheets in his Black Berry and assured Raj Babbar or Azharuddin to be one of the star speakers.

With so much happening around, the younger son of diplomat Shailendra Kumar Singh who died in office as governor of Rajasthan in 2009 is left with no time for social life. But what probably drives him is the sheer feeling of being able to make a difference. In his article for Seminar Magazine called “Dreaming of India in 2010″, he predicted that both the Congress and the BJP would renovate their elderly leaderships by 2010.